PMC appointed Gokhale Institute of Politics & Economics as Consultant for the Project of Carrying out Demographic Projection for Pune City (vide work order and letter number NAJ/J/2051 dated 08.10.2007)
The Scope of Work was:
- To gather all the necessary information regarding population, census, migration, area of PMC under consideration, ward details etc.
- To carry out the decadal demographic projection for the city of Pune.
- To carry out the four half decadal population projection from 2007 to 2027 & further up to 2041.
- To detail out the demography by stating the number of male & female for the above projections, categorized by their age group, sex, percentage ratio, workers, non-workers, etc.
- To study the migration pattern, its varied percentage & project it to get its effect on the above projections.
- To deliver the analysis in the form of various charts & illustrations, assumptions etc. in the form of detail demographic report
The projections in the report indicate that the percentage of migration to the city will decline after 2011. The main reason to move to the city was employment opportunity. As opportunities in the formal sector are declining, more and more unskilled people would find it difficult to get some foothold according to Sanjeevanee Mulay, who prepared the report.
According to the report submitted to the PMC, the rising trend in migration to the city seen in the 1991 and 2001 censuses was mainly due to economic reasons. The estimated migration between 1991-2001 was 3.6 lakh, which was about 15 per cent of Pune's population at the end of the decade.
As the information technology (IT) sector is rapidly expanding in recent years and the probable impact on migration, the report projects that, between 2001-2011, migration will remain constant at 12 per cent as in the past two decades. But between 2011-2021, it will decline to 10 per cent and to 8 per cent between 2021-2026.
The gist of the final demographic report submitted to the PMC is provided below:
According to the Economic Survey of Maharashtra, Pune ranks second in terms of per capita income (Rs. 60,000 per capita) next only to Mumbai. Service sector, trade, hotelling & transport are the leading sectors. Out of the available job opportunities, 26 percent are in IT sector. Among the jobs created, next to IT sector are the construction, transport, retail trade, hotel industry and banking and insurance sector. As per the MCCIA (Maratha records, more than sixty percent of IT workers are from other cities. The IT sector has an employment multiplier of 4,while the manufacturing sector has it around 8. Thus, in future unless the production sector is strengthened, employment generation will be badly affected. Particularly, the production sector has a provision for employment for the unskilled workers, while the IT sector fails in that respect.
The Town and Country Planning Organisation ranks Pune third in the cities with largest slums in India. It is estimated that 40% of Pune population stays in slums.
The growth of city has four components: fertility, mortality, territorial expansion and net migration.
The trend in population growth of Pune City The city had a population of 1.5 lakhs at the beginning of this century. Till 1931, it was only around 2 lakhs. After 1941, it started growing. During 1941-51, the growth was about 90 % be due to areal expansion. Later, upto 1991, the decadal growth was in the range of 30-40 %. Natural growth and moderate amount of migration were the main contributors. During 1991-2001, the decadal growth was 60 %.
GIPE has used Component Method for projecting population of Pune city for the next 20 years. In this method assumptions about the future trends in all the three components of population growth (fertility, mortality and migration) are made and then the different predicted components are combined to give the predicted population. In case of fertility and mortality, the estimates from the Sample Registration System could be used, as they are the most reliable estimates. It was observed that out of the population growth of PMC during 1991-2001, i.e. out of 9.7 lakhs 21% was due to natural growth, 41% was due to the territorial expansion and remaining 38% was due to net in-migration.
The following Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for Pune used for projections:
2001-06 2006-11 2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 TFR 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7
As it is known, mortality pattern is always represented through e00 (expectation of life at birth). The e00 values assumed for the future based on the e00 values of the entire State were:
e00 2001-06 2006-11 2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 Male 70 71.5 72.5 73.5 74.5 Female 73.5 75.0 75.5 76.0 76.5
Migration is the most crucial component for the growth of any city. Particularly, for dynamic cities like Pune, it becomes ‘the’ factor responsible for the population growth. At the same time it is the most difficult factor to project. It is observed that during 1981-91, there were 3.1 lakhs in-migrants to the U. A., while during 1991-2001, the figure went up to 7.4 lakhs, amounting to about 13 and 20 percent of the total population. The above analysis makes us realize that firstly, the amount of in-migration towards the city has increased significantly, secondly, the migration has become more male-oriented; thirdly the proportion of migrants from Uttar Pradesh/Bihar is increasing but still is at a lower level; fourthly, the proportion of migrants with personal reason is declining. The past trends imply that the migration is mainly due to economic reasons. GIPE assumed tapering of values of net migration rate since it has been observed that cities do not grow with the same rapidity for a longer period.
Period 2001-06 2006-11 2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 Net Migration Rate 12 % 12 % 10 % 10 % 8 %
All these values were then used to project population of Pune city for the next 20 years, as below:
Year 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 Population 25,36,848 30,35,532 36,04,323 43,29,259 49,97,755 55,97,346 Male 13,20,438 15,82,432 18,84,376 22,72,805 26,32,674 29,58,207 Female 12,16,410 14,53,100 17,19,947 20,56,454 23,65,081 26,39,139
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